Shareholder Yield: Buybacks vs. Dividends

Methodology

Data. Dividend yield is the DividendYield field from Alpha Vantage's COMPANY_OVERVIEW, a trailing, price-normalized yield. Buyback yield is the negative of the trailing-12-month % change in shares outstanding, taken from Share Count Trends (quarterly BALANCE_SHEET filings). A shrinking share count is a buyback. A growing one is net dilution, from new issuance, option exercises or stock-based comp outrunning repurchases, so a negative buyback yield below means the company diluted shareholders. Total shareholder yield is the two added together. Dividends and buybacks both return cash to shareholders, and a company that leans on one doesn't necessarily return less in total.

Scatter. The scatter tests a common claim: dividend payers and buyback-heavy companies are different populations. Mature, stable-cash-flow businesses favor dividends (investors punish a cut), while companies with more variable earnings favor buybacks (discretionary, easy to pause). If that's right, dividend yield and buyback yield should show a weak or negative correlation across the index. Pearson (OLS) and Spearman rank correlation are both shown, as on Factor Analysis, so one or two extreme stocks can't carry the result.

Sector and company name come from Sector Beeswarm. Refreshes weekly (Saturday), after Share Count Trends (so the buyback numbers are fresh) and after Analyst Estimate Dispersion (so the two jobs don't compete for Alpha Vantage's rate limit). Dividend policy and buyback pace don't move much day to day.