Earnings Growth vs. Price Performance

Where has the market already priced in a company's earnings growth, and where hasn't it? Trailing year-over-year EPS growth vs. 3-month price performance relative to SPY, across the S&P 500.
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Median YoY EPS Growth
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Full universe
Median 3M Relative Return
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vs. SPY, full universe
Growth Ahead of Price
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Strongest earnings growth, weakest relative price
Price Ahead of Growth
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Strongest relative price, weakest earnings growth

Median YoY EPS growth vs. median 3-month relative return, by sector

Two bars per sector. Do they broadly agree, or diverge?

Does 3-month relative price performance track earnings growth?

Each point is one stock. X is trailing year-over-year EPS growth, Y is 3-month price return relative to SPY.

Growth Ahead of Price

Strong earnings growth the market hasn't rewarded (yet), or has good reason not to.
SymbolSectorEPS YoYPrice 3M
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Price Ahead of Growth

Strong relative price performance without matching earnings growth
SymbolSectorEPS YoYPrice 3M
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Full S&P 500

Trailing year-over-year EPS growth and 3-month price return relative to SPY for each S&P 500 company.
Show full list
Symbol Sector EPS YoY▾ Price 3M▾ Divergence▾
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Methodology

EPS growth. The universe is the S&P 500. Alpha Vantage's EARNINGS endpoint provides quarterly reported EPS. Year-over-year growth compares the latest quarter with the same quarter a year earlier (4 quarters back), not the prior quarter, to avoid seasonal noise (a retailer's Q4 vs. Q3, for example). Companies with a loss (zero or negative EPS) in the year-ago quarter are excluded, because a swing from a loss to a profit isn't a meaningful growth rate.

Price performance. It is the 3-month return relative to SPY from Relative Strength Leaders/Laggards, from the same Saturday morning data run. A stock with no value on that page (recent IPO, data gap) has no price figure here either.

Divergence score. Every stock is ranked twice, by EPS growth (1 = fastest growing) and by 3-month relative price return (1 = best performing), and the score is the difference. A large positive score means price performance ranks far better than earnings growth: the market is paying up for something other than trailing fundamentals, or pricing in growth not yet reported. A large negative score means the reverse. Earnings are growing faster than the stock is moving, which is either an overlooked opportunity or the market correctly discounting something the trailing EPS number misses (rising costs, a slowing outlook, a one-off tax benefit). This page shows the divergence. It doesn't say which explanation applies to a given name.

Refreshes weekly (Saturday, after Relative Strength Leaders/Laggards and Equity Risk Premium by Sector). A trailing-quarter EPS comparison only changes when a company reports, so a daily refresh would add nothing. Sector and company name come from Sector Beeswarm.

Source: Alpha Vantage: EARNINGS and Relative Strength Leaders/Laggards data.