Sector Rotation Model

A Relative Rotation Graph-style view of the 11 SPDR sector ETFs: which sectors are leading, weakening, lagging or improving right now, and whether recent sector leadership tends to persist.
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Current Leader
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3-month relative return vs. SPY
Current Laggard
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3-month relative return vs. SPY
Sectors in "Leading" Quadrant
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Positive level and positive momentum
Month-to-Month Rank Persistence
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Spearman ρ, this month's leaders vs. next month's

Relative rotation graph

X: 3-month change in relative strength (level). Y: 1-month change in relative strength (momentum). Each point is one sector, as of the latest close.
← Lagging / Improving →
← Weakening / Leading →

Relative return by sector, across lookback periods

Return relative to SPY over the trailing 1/3/6/12 months

Does this month's sector leadership predict next month's?

Each point is one sector-month. X is that sector's relative-return rank that month (1 = best), Y is its rank the following month. Does chasing recent sector leadership work?

Current rotation snapshot

Relative return vs. SPY, sorted by 3-month relative return
Sector1M3M6M1YQuadrant
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Methodology

Uses the same data as Sector Performance and Sector Correlation Matrix: daily adjusted-close history for the 11 SPDR sector ETFs against SPY.

Rotation graph. It follows the standard Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) setup. A sector's level (x-axis) is its medium-term relative-strength trend, the 3-month change in its price-relative-to-SPY ratio. Its momentum (y-axis) is the 1-month change in that ratio. The four quadrants are Leading (positive level, positive momentum: outperforming and accelerating), Weakening (positive level, negative momentum: still outperforming but slowing), Lagging (negative level, negative momentum: underperforming and falling further behind) and Improving (negative level, positive momentum: underperforming but turning). Sectors tend to rotate through the quadrants clockwise over a full cycle, though not on a fixed schedule.

Persistence. The 11 sectors are ranked by trailing 1-month relative return at each month-end. Each sector's rank in one month is then correlated with its rank the next month (Spearman, since ranks are ordinal) across every sector-month pair. A near-zero or negative result would mean chasing last month's winners is no better than random, which matters before treating any one month's leaderboard as a signal.

Source: Yahoo Finance (via the existing /api/sector-performance dataset), TIME_SERIES_DAILY_ADJUSTED